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Just a short look into the past of AEC industry since the basis of descriptive geometry around 350 b.c. shows how much has changed since then. Cell phones, computers, online services – those were not a part of daily routine of average people a few decades ago.

Taking into consideration how fast is currently developing our industry, it can be clearly visible that it will be exposed to many new changes and challenges in the near future. This e-journal will focus on analyzing current predictions of AEC industry in relation to BIM by the year 2050.

To be able to predict what kind of changes are going to bring next few decades, The Construction Industry Council (CIC) has created BIM2050 Group which aims to improve AEC industry, its efficiency and encourage searching for innovation and inspiration in other industries. The group has conducted a research and based on it the Built Environment 2050 Report was published giving the taste of the future in the industry (Birchall, 2015).

The future digital construction will need to acknowledge the need for new skills and processes as well as create strategies to emerging technologies. Three specific areas such as education and skills, technology and process as well as integration culture were analyzed in the specific timescales. Those were set up based on the key technologies and BIM maturity levels that were placed on the timeline in context to each other and then mapped against other factors such as e.g. labor skills. In the result, Four Cycle Waves presented by Figure 1 were distinguished. Each of the three fields mentioned before was analyzed based on each Wave:

                                              Figure 1 Feedback Cycle Wave (BIM2050 Group, 2014)

 

• Wave 1 (2010-2020) – Analogue Decisions – reactive decisions on key stages (education & skills), available but not efficient tools for the creation of interactive digital assets (technology and process), manual information input and managing the output (integration culture)
• Wave 2 (2020-2030) – Digital Decisions - reactive decisions with collaboration and data transactions (education & skills), integrated processes and technology platforms (technology and process), the transition to automated input and managing the output in a digital environment (integration culture)
• Wave 3 (2030-2040) – Predictive Digital – reactive collaboration transforms to proactive integration (education & skills), learning from real-time building performance to be embedded into artificial intelligence (technology and process), automating transactions (external and internal) and promoting integration (integration culture)
• Wave 4 (2040+) – Artificial Intelligence – the fully connected industry with the ready availability of data (education & skills), self-sustaining and effective assets (technology and process), understanding technology as a value of communication (integration culture)

Results of research committed for BIM 2050 identified 10 key areas that will impact AEC industry by the year 2050 (BIM2050 Group, 2014):

1. Cyber Security
2. Interoperability for Smart Cities
3. Behavioral Intelligence Management
4. Nan-second Procurement and Performance
5. Biological Complexity
6. Life-Long learning
7. Consumer Access Economy & Space Travel
8. Sector Skill Migration
9. Robotics and Autonomous Systems
10. Business in the Future

Additionally, Mordue (2013) brings attention to the fact that in the year 2000 there were no jobs that are right now in the biggest demand. He also spots that the average person at the age of 38 has between 10 to 14 jobs. What is going to be, in this case, future jobs in our industry?

On the other hand, Balfour Beatty (2017) brings attention to challenges connected with the rapid development of digitalization:

• Much higher energy consumption requirements
• It will be more challenging to use and process data in real time
• Issues with data collection benefits in contrast to privacy
• Widely understood boundaries will become less visible and more seamless, cross-industry competition
• Higher risk of cyber attacks

Taking into consideration rapid development in the world, it can be clearly visible that BIM will be influenced by many fields and this can enable a positive impact on the built environment. How do you think, one of the 10 areas identified by BIM 2050 Group or other fields of knowledge, will influence BIM by the year 2050 and what could be the potential outcomes of this impact for AEC industry?

 

Natalia Jurek

 

References

Balfour Beatty. (2017). Innovation 2050. A Digital Future for the Infrastructure Industry. Balfour Beatty.

BIM2050 Group. (2014). Built Environment 2050 - A Report on Our Digital Future. CIC.

Birchall, S. (2015). BIM 2050. BSRIA.

Mordue, S. (2013). 2050. It seems like a long way off when you say it. But just what will the construction industry be like 37 years from now? NBS.